Anticipating potential impacts of the U.S. election on M&A trends

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election looms, partner Ricco Bhasin spoke with S&P Global about what a new administration could mean for global M&A.

In addition to improved valuations and lower interest rates, the results of the U.S. presidential election could contribute to a shift in M&A tides, Ricco says. While the current administration has prioritized scrutinizing M&A deal, we could see a different approach from a new administration.

The potential impacts of the U.S. election on M&A are further explored in an article from the Q3 Torys Quarterly titled “U.S. M&A outlook and the 2024 election”. “Common wisdom among dealmakers is that U.S. presidential elections have more of an effect on deal timing than deal outcomes,” the article says. For example, the volume of deals in the third quarter of presidential election years are typically lower than in non-election years; however, in the first quarter following the election, deals tend to “spike by approximately the same amount that they were depressed prior to the election.”

“This ‘dip and recovery’ pattern suggests that some deals are delayed to allow parties to adjust deals for election outcomes—but that most ultimately go through in some form, regardless of the election outcome,” the article explains.

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