Energy
Global demand for diversified energy continues to grow, fueled by increasing populations, emerging technologies and a heightened need for affordability and emission reductions.
Areas to watch
M&A and investment
Across jurisdictions, energy security has become a key driver of M&A activity—a reflection of a shifting and less certain geopolitical and trade environment. Global energy investment is forecasted to hit a record US$3.3 trillion in 2025, with capital deployment of that commitment across renewables, nuclear, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency and electrification forecasted to hit $2.2 trillion this year alone1. In North America, M&A in the energy sector surged in Q3 2025, with deal value growing by 149% and deal volume growing by 7% quarter on quarter2.
Canada’s full endowment of energy resources will need to be put to work to meet the need for affordable, reliable, secure energy. We expect to see increasing and sustained investment activity across the energy spectrum, from oil and gas and nuclear to renewable power and energy-intensive infrastructure projects such as data centres. Western Canadian oil and gas continue to be a key driver of the Canadian economy and exports. As the country looks to a more affordable roadmap for the energy transition, oil and gas will continue to be a critical part of the energy supply mix to help reduce costs for consumers, provide reliable energy and ensure energy security.
Transactions within the Canadian energy sector were strong, with notable deals across critical minerals, oil and gas production, renewable platforms and fuel distribution. The largest announced deal was the agreement by Anglo American plc and Teck Resources Limited to combine the two companies in a US$57 billion merger of equals to form the Anglo Teck group, expected to be a global critical minerals champion and top five global copper producer. Critical minerals are an essential part of the global economy and a driving force in energy transition, with copper acting as a vital conduit in renewable energy and storage systems.
Renewables
As the energy transition continues, governments across the globe are enacting policies and financing measures designed to support low emission energy sources. Investments in climate mitigation and energy transition initiatives also continue, with projected investment numbers expected to exceed US$80 trillion by 20403.
Canadian renewables remain a strong asset class, with the sector hitting a “breakout year” in 2024, growing by 19% to US$35 billion in global investments4. Federal support for renewables also remains strong. Under the Climate Competitiveness Strategy, unveiled in Budget 2025, the Canadian government has highlighted climate action as an economic advantage and will seek to attract investment in clean energy and technology.
Projects
Budget 2025 included several measures for the growth of infrastructure, including energy projects. The budget earmarks $115 billion in generational investments in infrastructure over five years and lays out steps for permit and regulatory reform in a bid to reduce timelines and complexity. Several energy-related projects have been referred by the Canadian federal government to the newly launched Major Projects Office for consideration as national interest projects. These include two LNG projects, the Darlington small nuclear reactor project, the Iqaluit hydro project, the North Coast transmission line and the Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor (which includes clean power transmission development). The government has increased funding to facilitate the development of these projects (including through Canada Infrastructure Bank, the Canada Growth Fund, Export Development Canada and the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Corporation) but remains steadfast in its desire to attract private investment. Budget 2025 announced tax incentives to promote investment and support the advancement of major projects.
Indigenous communities play a significant role in power infrastructure projects, and meaningful Indigenous engagement is a critical part of project development. With the announcement of legislation that aims to accelerate national priority projects, meaningful Indigenous participation and engagement will be key to project success. The government has established the Indigenous Advisory Council to advise the MPO on working with Indigenous groups and Indigenous perspectives. Earlier this year, the federal government increased the funding available for the Indigenous Loan Guarantee Program from $5 billion to $10 billion. Investors await more clarity on how the federal government intends to balance its desire to advance national interest projects quickly while honoring its climate objectives and its commitment to protecting Indigenous rights.
Provinces are also placing a renewed support behind energy initiatives, with many launching actions and investment programs to bolster the reliability and affordability of their energy systems. For example, the Government of Ontario released Energy for Generations, an Integrated Energy Plan (IEP) which provides a 25-year roadmap for powering Ontario’s growth and economic development. The IEP outlines actions and investments across Ontario’s energy system, with a focus on affordability, clean energy, reliability and security across nuclear and hydro generation, grid infrastructure, natural gas, hydrogen and carbon capture, energy efficiency and Distributed Energy Resources, Indigenous partnerships, and regional and global trade opportunities.
Global data centre investment is experiencing considerable growth. In Canada, Ontario and Alberta are leading in data centre projects with over 6,500 MW of new data centre projects requesting grid connection in Ontario5 and a 5,800% surge in data centre connection requests in Alberta6. Both provinces are taking legislative steps to safeguard the grid. The Ontario government’s Bill 40 directs the OEB to implement requirements for data centres to meet before they are able to connect to the grid. In a bid to offset against provincial corporate income taxes, the Alberta government is bringing in a new 2% levy on computer hardware for all data centres of 75 MW or more requesting connection to the grid7. In addition to evolving costs, companies along the data centre supply chain should also consider updated regulations within the space.
Critical minerals are an essential part of Canada’s energy strategy. To bolster this strategy, the federal government has announced the establishment of a $2B Critical Minerals Sovereign Fund, to be administered by Natural Resources Canada8. The fund will accelerate investment in mining projects and strengthen supply chains through equity investments, loan guarantees, and offtake agreements. In addition, $50 million over five years will be allocated to support the fund’s delivery and a $371.8 million First and Last Mile Fund will be launched to support upstream and midstream development of critical minerals supply chains.
Nuclear
Nuclear energy is experiencing a significant resurgence as jurisdictions respond to rapidly rising electricity demand from population growth, electrification and energy-intensive digital technologies such as AI. Recent projections from the International Atomic Energy Agency and the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency indicate that global nuclear generating capacity could double by 2050, with cumulative investment needs across the nuclear value chain exceeding US$2 trillion.
Data centres—one of the fastest-growing electricity loads worldwide—have become a notable driver of international interest in nuclear energy. As outlined in our insights into data centres, the U.S. is seeing several announcements pertaining to privately operated, off-grid nuclear facilities being built to serve data centres. These early-stage projects take advantage of flexible ownership structures, merchant-style power arrangements, and a licensing framework that allows private entities to pursue stand-alone nuclear deployments.
Canada’s regulatory and market environment differs in important ways. Under the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission’s (CNSC) framework, privately financed or single-offtaker projects must proceed through the full suite of licensing stages traditionally applied to utility-scale nuclear stations. In addition, electricity-market structures in most provinces do not currently accommodate merchant nuclear models comparable to those contemplated in the U.S. For investors, this means that novel ownership structures, industrial SMRs, campus microreactors, or non-grid-connected applications must be evaluated under existing multi-stage processes. While this approach provides a globally respected safety regime, it may limit the pace at which certain emerging deployment models can be pursued.
Major nuclear projects are underway in Canada, demonstrating strong public-sector and private commitments to nuclear technologies. The pioneering small nuclear reactor project by Ontario Power Generation (OPG), which received an up to $3 billion innovative equity investment by Canada Growth Fund and Building Ontario Fund, establishes Canada as the first G7 jurisdiction to advance a grid-scale, multi-unit commercial SMR deployment. With OPG pursuing multiple units of a single SMR design, Canada is positioned to demonstrate cost and schedule efficiencies associated with standardized, serial construction—long viewed as critical to sustainable nuclear economics. Ontario Power Generation and Bruce Power’s ongoing multi-unit life-extension program, among the largest low emission-energy infrastructure investments in Canada, continues to anchor long-term nuclear capacity and supply-chain activity. The Ontario government recently approved OPG's plan to refurbish four CANDU nuclear reactors at the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station, extending the facilities operations for up to 38 years and creating up to 30,500 jobs.
Federal support for next-generation CANDU technologies, including up to $304 million in repayable support to AtkinsRéalis, reinforces Canada’s position as one of the few countries with domestic reactor-design capability. As electricity systems fall under provincial jurisdiction, provinces are also demonstrating support for nuclear energy. Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta have each outlined long-term strategies involving new nuclear capacity, SMRs and advanced reactor technologies. Through the Future Electricity Fund and Natural Resources Canada, $52.4 million has been allocated to nuclear feasibility studies and enabling activities in Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Ontario9.
While capital commitments across the sector continue to increase, deployment timelines will depend heavily on the clarity and predictability of regulatory and permitting pathways. Additional guidance may improve project certainty in areas such as fleet-wide or generic environmental assessmentsand licensing for repeat SMR designs; frameworks for industrial, campus, or other non-grid-connected nuclear applications; enhancements to federal–provincial coordination under consolidated or single-window processes; and increased predictability in licensing and permitting timelines, especially for novel technologies.
Budget 2025 also highlighted additional support for the sector, offering a retroactive implementation of the 30% Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit for small modular and advanced nuclear projects to materially improve project economics, new funding for nuclear export development (intended to support Canada’s nuclear supply-chain participation and international project opportunities), and workforce-development investments aimed at expanding pipelines for skilled nuclear trades and specialized engineering roles. It also includes a commitment to a “one project, one review” model intended to reduce duplication, clarify federal–provincial roles and streamline impact-assessment processes10. Moving forward, federal programs and tax measures will need to align with provincial procurement priorities to support efficient execution and sustained investor confidence.
Mitigating risk
Evolving supply chain
Due to the integrated nature of energy production and distribution, it is no surprise that geopolitical instability is impacting energy market access and supply chains. Within the nuclear sector, global competition for nuclear components and specialized labour is intensifying. Constraints on large-scale forgings, enriched-fuel supply, reactor-grade materials and experienced nuclear trades may present scheduling and cost risks for Canadian projects. Early procurement strategies and supply-chain partnerships will be increasingly important as global deployment accelerates.
The ongoing uncertainty of the tariff and trade environment between Canada and the U.S. remains a key consideration for those within the energy sector. The impact of the initial U.S. tariffs and subsequent Canadian retaliatory measures have led the Canadian government to broker deals with other nations and launch domestic industry building initiatives to diversify, develop and secure the energy supply chain. These strategic partnerships help mitigate risks presented by an overreliance on the U.S., while creating opportunities for Canadian energy players, such as new investment channels, broader market access and an acceleration of major projects. However, with new opportunities come additional challenges. Companies should closely monitor evolving trade rules, shifting ESG requirements across jurisdictions, and among different investor groups, and identify and manage additional cybersecurity threats related to large-scale projects, such as interconnected grids.
For more information on our leading nuclear transactional and regulatory counsel, please visit our Nuclear Energy practice page.
- PitchBook, Global M&A Report.
- Bloomberg NEF, Energy Transition Investment Trends 2025.
- Government of Ontario, Ontario’s Energy Plan Unlocking Opportunities in the Digital Economy.
- AESO, AESO Update on Data Centres.
- Government of Alberta, Alberta introduces new levy framework for AI data centres.
- Foro Nuclear, Canadian nuclear investment.
- Canadian Nuclear Association, Budget 2025: Progress on Investment Certainty and Exports, but Greater Focus Needed on Domestic Nuclear Buildout.
Le mois dernier, le Canada a publié sa première Stratégie industrielle de défense (la Stratégie), qui souligne l’engagement du Canada à développer une base industrielle de défense solide et à stimuler la croissance économique. Ces efforts pourraient aussi comprendre le renforcement de l’état de préparation à la biodéfense et aux contre-mesures médicales, ce qui pourrait constituer des débouchés pour le secteur canadien des sciences de la vie en raison de l’importance accordée aux capacités nationales en ce sens et de la nécessité d’atténuer les risques d’urgences sanitaires.
Développement de contre-mesures médicales au Canada
Comme indiqué dans les bulletins précédents, le quatrième pilier de la Stratégie est axé sur la « sécurisation des chaînes d’approvisionnement pour les intrants et les biens clés » par le renforcement de la production nationale et le stockage de ressources. L’accent est mis tout particulièrement sur les contre-mesures médicales, en précisant que nos « alliés ont établi un lien explicite entre l’état de préparation à la biodéfense et aux contre-mesures médicales et leur sécurité économique et nationale, en élaborant de nouvelles stratégies et de nouveaux mécanismes pour faire progresser ces travaux ». Les contre-mesures médicales désignent divers produits réglementés pouvant être utilisés pour protéger la population lors d’une situation d’urgence de grande ampleur, comme l’éclosion d’une maladie ou une attaque impliquant des armes chimiques, biologiques ou nucléaires. Il peut s’agir de vaccins, de médicaments thérapeutiques et produits biologiques, de dispositifs de tests diagnostiques, des équipements de protection individuelle ou industrielle, et d’autres dispositifs médicaux. Les contre-mesures médicales sont essentielles à la réduction et à l’atténuation des dommages lors d’une urgence de santé publique.
Exploiter les voies réglementaires mises en place lors de la pandémie de COVID-19
Pendant et après la pandémie de COVID-19, le Canada a mis en place plusieurs nouvelles voies réglementaires comme mécanismes d’accélération des approbations de produits médicaux, ce qui pourrait offrir au gouvernement des options pour déployer des contre-mesures médicales afin de faire face aux risques pour la santé publique. Au début de la pandémie, Santé Canada a émis diverses ordonnances provisoires pour permettre l’importation et la vente de médicaments et de dispositifs médicaux qui n’avaient pas eu l’approbation des voies réglementaires traditionnelles. Or, Santé Canada a plutôt fait confiance aux voies d’approbation réglementaire et de l’exemption de certaines exigences en homologation de produits des pays impliqués dans la transaction. Beaucoup de ces règles provisoires ont depuis été officiellement intégrées à la réglementation en vertu de la Loi sur les aliments et drogues et ont été appliquées bien après la COVID-19. Conformément au Règlement sur les aliments et drogues, Santé Canada tient à jour la Liste des maladies qui menacent la santé publique et utilisera une procédure d’autorisation modifiée pour les médicaments d’urgence de santé publique pouvant traiter les affections figurant sur la liste. De même, le Règlement sur les instruments médicaux a établi une liste d’instruments médicaux répondant à un besoin urgent de santé publique, ce qui permet à Santé Canada d’autoriser la commercialisation de ces instruments de manière accélérée. Ces outils réglementaires sont utilisés automatiquement quand une situation médicale présente un grand risque pour la santé publique au Canada et nécessite une action immédiate pour contrer ce risque.
Le rôle de la Stratégie dans le renforcement du régime réglementaire de la santé au Canada
La stratégie prévoit que le Canada adoptera une approche proactive en matière de planification en amont des crises sanitaires. Le gouvernement entend s’assurer que les produits médicaux sont déjà disponibles au Canada afin qu’ils puissent être distribués rapidement en cas d’urgence. D’autres modifications récentes au Règlement sur les aliments et drogues permettent de prépositionner au Canada tous les médicaments d’urgence en santé publique, ce qui signifie qu’ils peuvent être importés dans des installations d’entreposage canadiennes avant que leur mise sur le marché n’ait été autorisée. La Stratégie s’appuie sur ces fondements, en faisant référence à l’organisme existant Préparation aux crises sanitaires Canada (PCSC), un organisme opérationnel spécial au sein d’Innovation, Sciences et Développement économique Canada (ISDE), et à un nouveau Fonds des sciences de la vie, lesquels « collaborent avec des partenaires internationaux et de soutenir l’élaboration et la production de contre-mesures médicales ». PCSC supervise la Stratégie en matière de biofabrication et de sciences de la vie du Canada, qui vise à développer un secteur national des sciences de la vie fort et compétitif doté de capacités de biofabrication de pointe, en mettant l’accent sur la capacité à se préparer et à faire face aux futures priorités et crises sanitaires. Dans cette optique, il y aura des occasions pour les fabricants de nouer des collaborations de recherche et des accords commerciaux ou d’approvisionnement liés aux contre-mesures médicales financées par des programmes fédéraux.
Étroitement lié aux capacités nationales, le pilier III de la stratégie implique « Investissement ciblé pour renforcer un secteur canadien de la défense novateur », avec la promesse que le gouvernement fédéral « soutiendr[a] la recherche et le développement, protéger[a] la propriété intellectuelle, soutiendr[a] les petites et moyennes entreprises, investir[a] dans les compétences et la formation, et encourager[a] les exportations afin de créer un secteur de la défense agile et concurrentiel à l’échelle mondiale ». La nécessité de favoriser le développement de la propriété intellectuelle (PI) et la conservation des droits du Canada est mentionnée à plusieurs reprises dans la Stratégie. Par exemple, la Stratégie prévoit l’établissement de partenariats officiels avec l’industrie canadienne qui « [assureront] la propriété et le contrôle nationaux de la propriété intellectuelle (PI) et des capacités essentielles. » La Stratégie reconnaît l’immense talent des établissements canadiens et la précieuse recherche qui y est menée actuellement et qui est déjà financée par des subventions de recherche d’organismes tels que le Conseil de recherches en sciences naturelles et en génie et les Instituts de recherche en santé du Canada, et fait aussi référence à l’engagement de 1,6 milliard de dollars pour de nouveaux fonds de recherche dans le budget de 2025. Cette prise de conscience de la nécessité de promouvoir et de soutenir l’innovation au Canada laisse présager des possibilités de financement, notamment dans les domaines où le Canada accuse un retard en matière de production nationale et où des engagements d’investissement et de fabrication au Canada peuvent être pris.
Prochaines étapes
Dans les prochains mois, nous prévoyons que le gouvernement du Canada publiera d’autres directives et des mesures de suivi. L’équipe de défense des conservateurs poursuivra sa couverture de perspectives sur la défense au Canada en publiant une analyse supplémentaire pour donner des précisions sur l’incidence de la Stratégie sur de multiples secteurs.